Central Michigan

Conference:	MAC
Expected RPI:	167.0
Current RPI:	167
Expected SOS:	176
Current SOS:	176
Current Record:	16-14
Expected Record:	16-14
Current Conf Record:	8-12
Expected Conf Record:	8-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	5-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	11-2
Current OOC Record:	8-2
Expected OOC Record:	8-2
Expected OOC RPI:	106
Expected OOC SOS:	323

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
16-14	167.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Central Michigan.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-13	Michigan (12.0)	B10	A	72-65	L	0%
11-22	Sam Houston St. (206.0)	Slnd	N	60-71	W	100%
11-24	Cal Poly (305.0)	BW	N	56-53	W	100%
11-25	Cal St. Bakersfield (220.0)	WAC	N	72-75	W	100%
12-1	Jackson St. (330.0)	SWAC	H	70-63	W	100%
12-5	Montana St. (283.0)	BSky	H	75-48	W	100%
12-9	Tennessee Tech (158.0)	OVC	H	74-69	W	100%
12-16	Southern Utah (252.0)	BSky	A	86-80	L	0%
12-19	UMKC (256.0)	WAC	A	86-92	W	100%
12-22	SIU Edwardsville (287.0)	OVC	H	70-52	W	100%
1-2	Ohio (204.0)	MAC	H	75-50	W	100%
1-6	Kent St. (154.0)	MAC	A	85-69	L	0%
1-9	Eastern Michigan (116.0)	MAC	A	79-74	L	0%
1-13	Toledo (75.0)	MAC	H	82-93	L	0%
1-16	Ball St. (126.0)	MAC	A	82-76	L	0%
1-20	Bowling Green (193.0)	MAC	A	75-84	W	100%
1-23	Miami OH (159.0)	MAC	H	61-70	L	0%
1-27	Kent St. (154.0)	MAC	H	76-84	L	0%
1-30	Northern Illinois (241.0)	MAC	H	81-67	W	100%
2-3	Ohio (204.0)	MAC	A	98-101	W	100%
2-6	Buffalo (25.0)	MAC	H	82-88	L	0%
2-10	Akron (227.0)	MAC	A	69-63	L	0%
2-13	Northern Illinois (241.0)	MAC	A	72-80	W	100%
2-17	Eastern Michigan (116.0)	MAC	H	67-72	L	0%
2-20	Western Michigan (177.0)	MAC	A	83-81	L	0%
2-23	Toledo (75.0)	MAC	A	89-76	L	0%
2-27	Ball St. (126.0)	MAC	H	75-51	W	100%
3-3	Western Michigan (177.0)	MAC	N	84-71	W	100%
3-5	Bowling Green (193.0)	MAC	H	81-77	W	100%
3-8	Buffalo (25.0)	MAC	N	89-74	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Central Michigan's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Central Michigan's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Central Michigan.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Central Michigan	MAC	26.30	26.30	52.94	52.94	1.55	1.55
Toledo	MAC	4.29	4.29	64.52	64.52	1.25	1.25
Kent St.	MAC	4.25	4.25	45.16	45.16	-0.41	-0.41
Buffalo	MAC	4.25	4.25	74.19	74.19	2.06	2.06
Ball St.	MAC	4.19	4.19	58.62	58.62	0.72	0.72
Northern Illinois	MAC	4.19	4.19	39.29	39.29	-0.90	-0.90
Eastern Michigan	MAC	4.19	4.19	55.56	55.56	0.47	0.47
Bowling Green	MAC	4.14	4.14	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Western Michigan	MAC	4.14	4.14	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Ohio	MAC	4.10	4.10	46.43	46.43	-0.29	-0.29
Miami OH	MAC	2.64	2.64	43.33	43.33	-0.35	-0.35
Akron	MAC	2.63	2.63	40.00	40.00	-0.53	-0.53
Jackson St.	SWAC	1.77	1.77	34.48	34.48	-0.55	-0.55
UMKC	WAC	1.73	1.73	28.57	28.57	-0.74	-0.74
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	1.72	1.72	34.62	34.62	-0.53	-0.53
Montana St.	BSky	1.72	1.72	37.93	37.93	-0.42	-0.42
Southern Utah	BSky	1.72	1.72	34.48	34.48	-0.53	-0.53
Tennessee Tech	OVC	1.72	1.72	56.67	56.67	0.23	0.23
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	1.72	1.72	31.03	31.03	-0.65	-0.65
Cal Poly	BW	1.67	1.67	25.00	25.00	-0.83	-0.83
Michigan	B10	1.67	1.67	78.79	78.79	0.96	0.96
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	1.67	1.67	53.57	53.57	0.12	0.12
Idaho	BSky	0.29	0.29	68.97	68.97	0.11	0.11
Chicago St.	WAC	0.26	0.26	3.33	3.33	-0.24	-0.24
Oakland	Horz	0.22	0.22	57.58	57.58	0.03	0.03
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.18	0.18	32.35	32.35	-0.06	-0.06
Utah Valley	WAC	0.18	0.18	65.52	65.52	0.06	0.06
Dayton	A10	0.16	0.16	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.16	0.16	62.50	62.50	0.04	0.04
Syracuse	ACC	0.16	0.16	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Iowa	B10	0.16	0.16	42.42	42.42	-0.02	-0.02
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.15	0.15	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Long Beach St.	BW	0.14	0.14	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.14	0.14	13.33	13.33	-0.10	-0.10
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.14	0.14	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Milwaukee	Horz	0.14	0.14	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.14	0.14	27.59	27.59	-0.06	-0.06
Austin Peay	OVC	0.14	0.14	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.14	0.14	36.67	36.67	-0.04	-0.04
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.14	0.14	9.68	9.68	-0.11	-0.11
Penn	Ivy	0.13	0.13	74.19	74.19	0.07	0.07
Marshall	CUSA	0.13	0.13	69.70	69.70	0.05	0.05
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.13	0.13	12.50	12.50	-0.10	-0.10
Maryland	B10	0.13	0.13	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Valparaiso	MVC	0.13	0.13	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Detroit	Horz	0.13	0.13	20.00	20.00	-0.08	-0.08
Wright St.	Horz	0.13	0.13	71.88	71.88	0.06	0.06
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.12	0.12	83.33	83.33	0.08	0.08
Seattle	WAC	0.12	0.12	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.12	0.12	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.11	0.11	70.00	70.00	0.05	0.05
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.11	0.11	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.11	0.11	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Green Bay	Horz	0.11	0.11	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Idaho St.	BSky	0.11	0.11	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Montana	BSky	0.11	0.11	77.42	77.42	0.06	0.06
North Dakota	BSky	0.11	0.11	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.11	0.11	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.11	0.11	24.14	24.14	-0.06	-0.06
Belmont	OVC	0.11	0.11	72.73	72.73	0.05	0.05
Indiana St.	MVC	0.11	0.11	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Murray St.	OVC	0.11	0.11	82.76	82.76	0.07	0.07
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.11	0.11	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana	B10	0.11	0.11	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.11	0.11	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.11	0.11	44.12	44.12	-0.01	-0.01
Purdue	B10	0.10	0.10	82.35	82.35	0.07	0.07
Georgia Southern	SB	0.09	0.09	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Lamar	Slnd	0.09	0.09	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Fresno St.	MWC	0.09	0.09	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Manhattan	MAAC	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.08	0.08	73.33	73.33	0.04	0.04
USC Upstate	ASun	0.08	0.08	10.71	10.71	-0.07	-0.07
Southern	SWAC	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.08	0.08	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Portland St.	BSky	0.08	0.08	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.08	0.08	16.67	16.67	-0.06	-0.06
San Jose St.	MWC	0.08	0.08	10.34	10.34	-0.07	-0.07
Weber St.	BSky	0.08	0.08	60.71	60.71	0.02	0.02
Appalachian St.	SB	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.08	0.08	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
UC Riverside	BW	0.08	0.08	24.14	24.14	-0.04	-0.04
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.08	0.08	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
IUPUI	Horz	0.08	0.08	32.14	32.14	-0.03	-0.03
Morehead St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	22.22	22.22	-0.05	-0.05
Delaware	CAA	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.08	0.08	84.38	84.38	0.05	0.05
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.08	0.08	80.00	80.00	0.05	0.05
Oregon St.	P12	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Michigan St.	B10	0.08	0.08	87.88	87.88	0.06	0.06
Ohio St.	B10	0.08	0.08	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
Arkansas St.	SB	0.06	0.06	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.06	0.06	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.06	0.06	14.29	14.29	-0.04	-0.04
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
College of Charleston	CAA	0.06	0.06	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Hawaii	BW	0.06	0.06	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.06	0.06	10.71	10.71	-0.05	-0.05
Howard	MEAC	0.06	0.06	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.06	0.06	12.50	12.50	-0.04	-0.04
New Orleans	Slnd	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
South Florida	Amer	0.06	0.06	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.06	0.06	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.06	0.06	30.77	30.77	-0.02	-0.02
UC Davis	BW	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
UC Irvine	BW	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Pepperdine	WCC	0.06	0.06	16.13	16.13	-0.04	-0.04
Princeton	Ivy	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.06	0.06	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.06	0.06	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.06	0.06	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	15.62	15.62	-0.04	-0.04
Drexel	CAA	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.06	0.06	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Iona	MAAC	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Marquette	BE	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Saint Louis	A10	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Tulsa	Amer	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.06	0.06	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
UCLA	P12	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.05	16.67	16.67	-0.04	-0.04
Western Illinois	Sum	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Bucknell	Pat	0.05	0.05	73.53	73.53	0.03	0.03
Chattanooga	SC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.05	0.05	24.24	24.24	-0.03	-0.03
Notre Dame	ACC	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Oregon	P12	0.05	0.05	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
Stony Brook	AE	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
LSU	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Albany	AE	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Canisius	MAAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Cincinnati	Amer	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Cornell	Ivy	0.05	0.05	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas	B12	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Niagara	MAAC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
NJIT	ASun	0.05	0.05	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Robert Morris	NEC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Texas A&M	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Xavier	BE	0.05	0.05	84.85	84.85	0.04	0.04
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Nebraska	B10	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Arizona	P12	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Baylor	B12	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
California	P12	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Little Rock	SB	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	32.00	32.00	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	8.00	8.00	-0.02	-0.02
SMU	Amer	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Stanford	P12	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
UT Arlington	SB	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Wichita St.	Amer	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Binghamton	AE	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
Creighton	BE	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Denver	Sum	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Mercer	SC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
South Alabama	SB	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
UNLV	MWC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Utah St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Davidson	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Fordham	A10	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Furman	SC	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Hartford	AE	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Missouri	SEC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
TCU	B12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Tulane	Amer	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
USC	P12	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Illinois	B10	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Jacksonville	ASun	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.02	0.02	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina	ACC	0.02	0.02	71.43	71.43	0.01	0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.02	0.02	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Rutgers	B10	0.02	0.02	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.02	0.02	40.00	40.00	-0.00	-0.00
Texas	B12	0.02	0.02	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
VCU	A10	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.02	0.02	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00